As a Realtor® and builder, I mainly focus on the areas of Northern Virginia that lie inside the beltway. Because of that focus, it’s been a while since I looked at how the Market in Fairfax County is performing as a whole. As we approach the new year, I was curious about the larger picture of home sales here in Northern Virginia—so I pulled data for single family home sales in Fairfax County this Summer and Fall, and compared the numbers to the same period of 2017. Here’s what I found:
Fairfax County Single Family Home Sale Statistics
June 4th-December 4th 2018
| Sale Date Range | # Homes Sold | Avg # of Days on Market | Median Sale Price | Sale Price / Original List |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 4th-December 4th 2018 | 4046 | 57 | $665,000 | 97.6% |
| June 4th-December 4th 2017 | 4358 | 65 | $645,000 | 97.2% |
| Change: | -7.2% | -12% | +3.1% | +0.4% |
County-Wide, home prices increased by about 3% and the number of homes sold declined this Summer/Fall vs the same period of 2017.
This is trend I’ve been noticing in different areas of Northern Virginia recently: Fewer home sales and moderate growth. It is generally due to a lack of inventory at the low end of the market. I broke down home sales by price range to see if that was the case for Fairfax County:
Fairfax County Single Family Home Sales
June 4th – December 4th 2018
(Broken Down by Price Range)
| Price Range | Homes Sold 2018 (2017) | Avg # of Days on Market 2018 (2017) | Sale Price / Original List Price 2018 (2017) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 – | 631 (839) | 47 (51) | 96.9% (97.6%) |
| $500,000-$750,000 | 2012 (2066) | 50 (59) | 98.4% (97.7%) |
| $750,000-$1,000,000 | 850 (846) | 59 (70) | 97.4% (97.1%) |
| $1,000,000-$1,250,000 | 232 (276) | 74 (79) | 95.1% (95.8%) |
| $1,250,000-$1,500,000 | 163 (139) | 93 (87) | 96.6% (95.9%) |
| $1,500,000-$2,000,000 | 100 (127) | 114 (111) | 95.8% (95.5%) |
| $2,000,000 + | 56 (65) | 121 (169) | 95.8% (91.2%) |
As you can see, there was a 25% drop in the number of homes sold for under $500,000 in Fairfax County this Summer/Fall vs Summer/Fall 2017.
This drop in the low end of the market is due to a lack of inventory. To get a better idea of how this year’s numbers fit into the long-term home sales picture in Fairfax County, I looked back at home sales in Summer/Fall for the past 5 years:
- Summer/Fall 2013: 4,218 homes sold / $611,377 Median Sale Price
- Summer/Fall 2014: 3,782 homes sold / $615,000 Median Sale Price
- Summer/Fall 2015: 4,151 homes sold / $625,000 Median Sale Price
- Summer/Fall 2016: 4,291 homes sold / $632,500 Median Sale Price
- Summer/Fall 2017: 4,358 homes sold / $645,000 Median Sale Price
- Summer/Fall 2018: 4,046 homes sold / $665,000 Median Sale Price
From 2013 to 2018, the median sale price of a single family home increased 8% in Fairfax County—an average of 1.6% a year. This Summer/Fall, the median sale price increased 3.1% over Summer/Fall 2017, the largest single year increase over the past 5 years.
So county-wide, we have seen nice, moderate growth in home prices this year. This is likely to continue into 2019 due to the lack of inventory at the low end of the market, which creates a seller’s market situation, and stimulates higher sale prices.
I took a quick look at the current inventory picture to see where we stand right now:
Current Inventory: Fairfax County Single Family Homes
| List Price Range | Active Listings | Pending Sales | Months of Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $500,000 | 103 | 80 | 1.2875 |
| $500,000-$750,000 | 341 | 179 | 1.9 |
| $750,000-$1,000,000 | 286 | 87 | 3.28 |
| $1,000,000-$1,250,000 | 142 | 27 | 5.25 |
| $1,250,000-$1,500,000 | 134 | 25 | 5.36 |
| $1,500,000-$2,000,000 | 154 | 19 | 8.1 |
| $2,000,000+ | 152 | 18 | 8.4 |
Taking a look at current inventory, the numbers show a strong seller’s market (1-4 months of available inventory) in the lower price points—homes listed for less than $1,000,000. Home sales of less than $1,000,000 accounted for over 85% of the total number of homes sold this Summer/Fall. The low inventory in this area of the market will continue to slowly drive up prices at this end of the market, which will have an effect on the higher price points.
We are seeing a balanced market in the middle price points (5-7 months of available inventory), and buyer’s market in the higher price points (8-12 months of available inventory). This is pretty typical of any market with such a wide range of home values. The current inventory picture I see indicates a strong market in Fairfax County as whole.
So what do all these numbers mean?
The real estate market in Fairfax County in hale and healthy going into 2019, and should continue to experience moderate, steady growth in home prices, and very little, if any, increase in the number of homes sold overall. Increased interest rates in 2019 could temper growth a bit, but all of the numbers point to a continuation of the trends we’ve seen this year: Moderate Price Growth and a chronic lack of inventory driving the market slowly upward.
If you’re thinking of selling in Fairfax County, this Winter/Spring is an ideal time!
Lou Sagatov, Realtor®
571-305-2405