I’m getting ready to start construction on three new homes in Vienna, so I decided to take an in-depth look at how the market has performed over the last six months. I pulled data for Vienna single family home sales this Summer and Fall, and compared the numbers to the same period of 2017. Here’s what I found:
Vienna Single Family Home Sale Statistics
May 26th-November 26th 2018
| Sale Date Range | # Homes Sold | Avg # of Days on Market | Avg Sale Price | Sale Price / Original List |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26th-November 26th 2018 | 346 | 61 | $970,318 | 97.5% |
| May 26th-November 26th 2017 | 364 | 68 | $972,977 | 97.4% |
| Change: | -5% | -10% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
Vienna Single Family Home Sales
May 26th -November 26th 2018
(Broken Down by Price Range)
| Price Range | Homes Sold 2018 (2017) | Avg # of Days on Market 2018 (2017) | Sale Price / Original List Price 2018 (2017) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $750,000 – | 98 (107) | 43 (52) | 97.9% (97.8%) |
| $750,000-$1,000,000 | 134 (126) | 48 (58) | 97.7% (98.3%) |
| $1,000,000-$1,250,000 | 49 (52) | 64 (61) | 96.1% (96.9%) |
| $1,250,000-$1,500,000 | 36 (49) | 117 (98) | 97.8% (95.6%) |
| $1,500,000-$1,750,000 | 18 (24) | 91 (139) | 99% (96.7%) |
| $1,750,000 + | 11 (6) | 132 (72) | 95.1% (97.4%) |
According to the numbers, home prices plateaued and the number of homes sold declined this fall and summer vs the same period of 2017.
I was curious about the lack of growth, particularly in home prices, so I looked back at overall home sales for the past 5 years:
- 2013: 642 homes sold / $841,120 Avg Sale Price
- 2014: 600 homes sold / $902,946 Avg Sale Price
- 2015: 645 homes sold / $905,681 Avg Sale Price
- 2016: 668 homes sold / $902,306 Avg Sale Price
- 2016: 693 homes sold / $955,015 Avg Sale Price
From 2013 to 2017, the average sale price of a single family home increased 12% in Vienna. That’s an average of 3% a year.
Last year, the average sale price increased 6%. This large jump in home prices last year probably accounts for the lack of an increase this year. Looking back at home sales over the past 4 years, a similar stagnation in home prices occurred in 2015-2016, followed by the large increase last year.
It’s probable that this trend will repeat, and the biggest question for Vienna is this: Will the price stagnation continue into 2019, or will home prices begin to rise again in the coming year?
Let’s take a quick look at the current inventory picture:
Current Inventory: Vienna Single Family Homes
| List Price Range | Active Listings | Pending Sales | Months of Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $750,000 | 17 | 9 | 1.88 |
| $750,000-$1,000,000 | 43 | 10 | 4.3 |
| $1,000,000-$1,250,000 | 17 | 7 | 2.4 |
| $1,250,000-$1,500,000 | 44 | 7 | 6.28 |
| $1,500,000-$1,750,000 | 19 | 2 | 9.5 |
| $1,750,000 + | 11 | 1 | 11 |
Taking a look at current inventory, the numbers show a classic balanced market, with a seller’s market (1-3 months of available inventory) in the lower price points, a balanced market in the middle price points (4-6 months of available inventory), and buyer’s market in the higher price points (8-12 months of available inventory).
So what do all these numbers mean?
I think it’s likely that the Vienna market will experience another year of limited growth in terms of home prices and home sale volume in 2019. The current inventory picture indicates a balanced market, and interest rates are set to rise in 2019. All of this points to stagnation in home prices, rather than a significant increase.
Home sales volume will depend on how much inventory comes onto the market in the lower price points this coming spring.
I’m keeping an eye on the Vienna market in the meantime!
If you have any questions about Vienna real estate, or anything related to home building and construction, please feel free to reach out anytime.
Till next time,
Lou Sagatov, Realtor®
571-305-2405