As part of my regular market research, I look at Arlington home sales at the end of each quarter.
We just finished out the first quarter of 2016, and I was curious about how the market has performed so far. I also wanted to get an idea of where we are this year as compared to last year.
See the table below to view the home sale figures:
| Year | Homes Sold | Avg Sale Price | Avg Days on Market | # of New Homes Sold | # of Existing Homes Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Arlington 2016 | 184 | $869,625 (96.3% of Original List Price) | 69 | 19 | 165 |
| All Arlington 2015 | 189 | $935,098 (96.8% of Original List Price) | 63 | 23 | 166 |
| N Arlington 2016 | 133 | $953,745 (96.3% of Original List Price) | 73 | 17 | 116 |
| N Arlington 2015 | 138 | $1,027,281 (97.1% of Original List Price) | 67 | 23 | 115 |
I was surprised at first to see such a large drop in the average sale price ($65,000) in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the first quarter of 2015, so I probed a bit deeper into the sales figures.
The table below shows a distribution of home sales across the major price points of the Arlington market.
| Year | Homes Sold <$800K | Homes Sold $800K-1 Million | Homes Sold $1-1.3 Million | Homes Sold 1.3 Million + |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Arlington 2016 | 100 | 40 | 24 | 20 |
| All Arlington 2015 | 97 | 36 | 20 | 36 |
| N Arlington 2016 | 60 | 31 | 22 | 20 |
| N Arlington 2015 | 55 | 30 | 19 | 33 |
As you can see, a large part of the discrepancy is due to the fact that fewer high-end homes sold in the first quarter of 2016 than in the first quarter 0f 2015. So is the high end of the market cooling down this year?
Not really. The sales figures for this year are consistent with historical trends. The current inventory picture also indicates that the market is quite strong this year. Here’s what it looks like:
Active Single Family Home Listings in Arlington (4/8/16):
204 listings / 174 pending sales = 70 days of inventory
Active Single Family Home Listings in Arlington Listed a $1.3 Million or higher (4/8/16):
89 listings / 37 pending sales = 144 days of inventory
Generally, if there is 1-4 months of inventory, the market is considered a seller’s market. So as of right now, Arlington as a whole is a strong sellers market, and the high-end of the Arlington market is a moderate sellers market. This is pretty consistent with the general markets trends for Arlington over the past few years.
The market has experienced slow and steady growth limited by the fact that demand continues to outpace supply. This is a trend that is likely to continue. It’s also good to keep in mind that the Spring market has just started here in Arlington, and given the current market situation, it’s shaping up to be a great time to sell a home here in Arlington. If you’re a buyer, Arlington continues to be a market where you have to be proactive and aggressive.
If you’re interested in learning more about the housing market, here are a few good links:
Zillow CEO on the Housing Market
5 Forecasts for the Housing Market from Builder Online
If you’d like to get an idea of what your home is worth in the current market, I’d be happy to do a complimentary market analysis on your home for you. Just click the button below:
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Lou Sagatov
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